Six trends for opportunities in the '90s

Executive stockholders meeting, April 1990

I plan to highlight some trends I believe will influence Landmark in this next decade. Most of the forces I'll talk about will present opportunities for Landmark.

That doesn't mean I'm ignoring our problems. We face a wide assortment. Illiteracy. Declining newspaper reading. Growing competition. The elusive goal of improving minority employment. We must confront these and other challenges. And they will continue to command our attention until we solve them.

Solving problems alone, however, will not be enough to move Landmark forward. Real success comes only to companies that recognize opportunities and make the most of them.

Let me talk about six trends that I think offer opportunities for Landmark in the 1990s.

First, I expect to see a strong economy through much of the '90s. That may sound strange when we appear to be heading into a recession. But I'm talking about a decade, not a year. The economy may not be as robust as the long boom of the '80s. It should be much better than in the '60s and '70s, when America was plagued by war, inflation, economic stagnation and Jimmy Carter's "malaise."

Consider these running currents. Communism and socialism are fast disintegrating in most of the developed world. Democracy and market economies are winning. As a result, we'll see a large shift from military to civilian investment. As totalitarian shackles are removed, new markets will open for American products and entrepreneurs. At the same time, American businesses are rapidly learning to compete again, while the unproductive takeover binge seems to be winding down.

In this climate, Landmark should be expansive rather than cautious.

Trend No. 2: Major shifts in population. The population is aging. The huge baby boom generation is growing middle-aged. As the birth rate has declined, there are fewer young people to replace the baby boomers. As people are living longer, those over 50 may become the dominant faction in our society.

There are many implications. Here are a few.

Middle-aged and older people have always been better newspaper readers than the young. They are better viewers of The Weather Channel, too. But they won't just walk in the door. We'll have to find some new ways to lure the baby boomers, most of whom were born and raised on TV sitcoms and movies. And we'll have to do more to cater to the special interests of the seniors, as well.
As the boomers mature, they are becoming better workers and more productive. However, with fewer young people entering the work force, the supply of entry-level people will be tight. Meanwhile, jobs are becoming more skilled.
All that adds up to opportunity for Landmark. We have a tradition of working harder to train and develop our people than do most companies. People development will be the critical requirement, and we will have to take it to a new level in the '90s. The caliber of Landmark's organization is already a strong asset. If we continue to raise our standards, we can build a powerful organization in the '90s.

No. 3: Demand for news, information, entertainment and advertising will continue to grow. Rising demand, technology and the invention of new media will bring on a faster pace of change. Traditional media companies are consolidating, but lots of new players are entering - companies like IBM, Sony, Mead and many smaller entrepreneurs. They are attracted by growth and change.

To stay ahead of the competition, we need to anticipate changes and take advantage of them.

For example, advertisers are becoming more sophisticated and cost-conscious. They will demand more targeted advertising and narrowly focused media. Computers and technology will permit us to customize our existing products to smaller market segments and eventually to individual households.

There's a natural inclination to resist these changes. It's easier, cheaper and sometimes more satisfying to focus our resources on one standard product. But the rewards in the '90s will go to the customizers - the media that tailor their products to needs of individual customers.

Direct marketing, catalog retailing and video shopping at home have become major advertising media in the '80s. They bypass traditional media. We need to figure out how to participate in this burgeoning business.

One prospect is to extend the use of our newspaper distribution systems. With postal rates zooming, we may have a chance to develop business as the low-cost distributor.

Another possibility is to start new, advertising-related businesses, like our CarHunt automobile location service. CarHunt is an imaginative new way to match buyers and sellers of cars in a market that has been notoriously inefficient. It is a natural extension of our classified advertising business. CarHunt is not proven yet, but we hope it will be the forerunner of other electronic marketplaces we can create.

Trend four: New technology will spawn entirely new media in the '90s. Videotext never got out of the starting gate. Consumers found raw text on a computer screen too cumbersome and boring. But personal computers eventually will find an important role in media.

They will be loaded with color pictures, video clips, maps, voice and sound. Animation, narration and music will be added to text and graphics.

The first application of multimedia PCs will be in business and education. Think of the sizzle multimedia PCs can add to sales presentations, training and merchandising. Sellers of high-ticket items could send computer disks as advertising to select customers.

Imagine how educators could use multimedia PCs in teaching history or geography.

Eventually multimedia will make the PC a household staple. When that happens, it might let us transform the Pilot and Ledger's new audiotext service, Infoline, into a very lively new medium. We might add pictures, graphics and perhaps video to what is now simply a voice service. Think of the appeal and value this would add.

The personal computer is not the only new way to deliver information. People have talked about a facsimile-delivered newspaper for years, but I doubt I'll ever see a traditional full-size newspaper by fax. Even so, the day of fax-delivered information has come in a rush.

There will be 9 million fax machines in use by 1992. They are easy to use and getting cheaper by the month. I think we'll soon see a wide array of publications delivered by fax. Some will be tailored for individual customers.

We won't be the only ones fishing in these new ponds. Landmark will have to be creative and venturesome to seize upon new media and develop markets for them. We have a history of being willing to experiment and take risks with new products and ventures. That's a big advantage. To be successful in a competitive world, we must always be willing to risk failure.

The fifth trend: Global media. We have created a worldwide communications system. I believe it is responsible in part for the incredible democracy movement. Soon we will be able to communicate almost anything anywhere - by text, data, voice, video.

English is becoming almost a universal language. Its use is growing because it is taught more than any other language. More than 80 percent of the information stored in computers around the world is in English.

As a result, large American and foreign media companies are moving to become multinational companies. They see opportunities to open new markets for their products. Landmark has entered a small foreign venture with a Canadian partner to operate a Canadian weather channel. We intend to participate in this global marketplace.

My sixth trend. Women taking charge. There was a rising tide of women moving into professional and managerial jobs throughout the '70s and '80s. In Landmark during the 1980s, women increased from 28 to 41 percent of our professional employees. And women grew from 15 to 38 percent of our managers and supervisors.

The greatest impact of this trend will be felt in the '90s, when more women will move into leadership roles in Landmark and other companies.

This is an enormous opportunity. Just as women have already enlarged the pool of talent in our professional ranks, they will greatly enlarge our managerial talent. And with more women making key management decisions, we should be in closer touch with the needs and interests of women who make consumer decisions.

This is not just a matter of taking. We have to give something back, too. We must do a better job of learning how to adapt to the special problems and needs of women who work. In some places the adjustments need to be substantial, but the talent and commitment we will receive in return will be more than worth the effort.

Now let me summarize these six trends for the '90s:

First, a strong economy in most years.
Second, an aging population and a tight supply of new, young talent.
Third, heavy demands for news, information, entertainment and advertising, and a clear move toward targeted markets and media.
Fourth, new media spawned by technology.
Fifth, growth of global media companies.
Sixth, women taking charge.
None of these trends is revolutionary, and they are not the only forces we will encounter in the '90s. But I believe all of them offer opportunities for Landmark.

Landmark has generally maintained a healthy balance between the old and the new. Through the years we have stuck by our fundamental values - quality products, independent journalism, fairness to customers, development of our people, and ethical business practices. At the same time, we have been dissatisfied with the status quo. We have worked hard to raise standards. We have frequently ventured into new territory, sometimes at great risk, as with The Weather Channel.

The focus of our meeting today has been to look forward to this new decade. That is critical in this time of fast and sometimes incredible change. But let's also keep our eyes glued on our bedrock purposes - to produce first-rate media that excel in serving our customers.

Copyright 1990 Frank Batten